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Complete Currency Trader is the brainchild of James Edward, founder & CEO. It uses a system that professional traders use. Most courses analyse currency pairs but CCT examines the forex marketplace as a whole and matches strong currencies against weak currencies.
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How much work would it take to achieve a 1% profit per day average trading in forex?
I know that it would also depend on the person, but I just want to know from successful traders here, how much effort and time they think the average person needs to put in to attain a 1 percent per day return.
Charts confusing? Here's how I trade without ever looking at a chart.
Been getting PM's about how I trade without looking at charts. So here it is guys. Say EUUSD is down -0.20% and -20 pips on D1 and -0.15% and -15 pips on H8. I now have a trade opportunity because I know two things. The price is low and the price is starting to go back up. I can buy. TP/SL is simple. I'm aiming for zero and I take a long position. 15 pips for TP & SL and size my lot according to my risk management tolerance. Since Forex ranges more than it trends I know odds are I made the right trade. I don't touch the trade and it'll close with a profit or loss. When that happens I repeat the process having never looked at a chart. To demonstrate here are a few charts as I get most are thinking I'm crazy. But this is what you're doing when you follow the trend. Hoping for uncharted territory to make a profit. https://preview.redd.it/8ryw5lvqkjy51.jpg?width=2337&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=456efdeeb838fe0f5c5aa8aac405f7c776f08e62 Here's what you're doing when you aim for zero. Buying low, selling high & selling high, buying low. Price almost always will go back to the middle which takes all the guess work out of trading. https://preview.redd.it/z79symlskjy51.jpg?width=2209&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fb945390f2f3c031ae81680689eb7c30730ad9a7 If your profits depend on prices flying off into the vast unknown you're not going to make money because that's not going to happen often enough. If your profits depend on prices that happened just hours ago there's a much better chance people will want to make a deal at that price again. Try it out. Trading really is as simple as buy low sell high. But you're not buying low and selling high when you follow a trend. Then you're buying high and hoping it goes into uncharted territory.
So there seems to be a lot of new people on this sub. And makes sense if you have questions a lot of time you'll turn to reddit for the answers (I know I do). Well here are some tips that I think would benefit new traders.
Don't trade ANY Euro pairs. Look I know it's the most traded pair it goes up and down really fast and there's so much potential for you to make money. Turns out there's even more for you to lose money. It's way too volatile specially if you don't know what you're doing. EUUSD is the worst offender.
Trade the Daily. Might think you're cool looking at charts every x amount of times during the day. You get to tell your friends and family that you trade all day and they might be impressed at what you're doing but unless you have some years under you stick to the daily. There's less noise. You can see clearer trends and when you don't stare at the screen all day you're less emotional therefore a more effective trader. I only look at the chart 15 minutes a day to either enter close or manage my trades. Whatever happens when I'm gone is what happens.
There is no holy grail indicator Look for it all you want. It doesn't exist. There are good indicators. There are bad indicators. There are some indicators that are so broken if you do the opposite of what they're intended for you'll actually make a profit. But the fact remains that there's no perfect one. Stop looking. What you should be looking for is an indicator that fits with your strategy.
What currencies to pick. I actually never see this brought up. The notion in forex is that all pairs can be traded equally. To a certain extent that's not false. But until you get the hang of it stick to a strict trading diet. Look for pairs that trend a lot. Duh look for the trend I can hear you say. When I say trend I don't mean a couple of days or weeks. I mean a couple of months. Half a year. Pairs that do that have a higher tendency to stick with one direction for a while. That's where you make your money. An easy way to identify those pairs as well is putting together a volatile currency (USD) with a less volatile one(JPY).
USE YOUR SL Trust me even if not putting a SL has netted you all kinds of gains eventually the market will turn around and bite you. With no safety net you'll lose most if not all your profit. The best offense is a good defense.
How to pick your TP and SL level. Most new traders care so much about that. I put it near the bottom because in my opinion you should know everything listed first. This is my opinion and I use it for my strategy I use the ATR(average true range) indicator. It's a really helpful tool that helps you identify the range at which the candles will either rise or fall. Obviously you want to set your TP inside of that range and your SL slightly outside of it.
Lot sizes. Everyone has a different story about how they pick their lot size. The general consensus is don't risk over 2% of your account. But I'm a simple man and I can't be bothered to figure out what my risk is every single time. So what I do is I put $0.10 for every $100 I have on the account. I then assign $300(minimum) to each pair. That's $0.30 per pair. It's easy to remember. 10 cent for every $100. If you're able to blow $100 with $0.10 then you probably shouldn't trade.
How to avoid reversals. Tbh you can't. There's no way to predict the future so eventually you'll get hit by one. What you can do however is minimize the blow. How I do it is for every pair I take two trades. If you remember in the previous tip is said I do about$0.30 per pair well I divide it 2:1. I take one trade with a TP(2) and one without (1). If my TP is hit I pocket that amount and if the trend keeps going in my direction I make even more. If the trend decides to end or reverses my losses are minimal because at least I kept half.
There is NO right way to trade. Stop listening to people telling the best way to trade is fundamentals or naked charts of to use some specific indicator. There are no right way to do this. It's as flexible and unlimited as your imagination. I personally use indicators but if that's not your thing do YOU! Just remember to manage your trades properly and be level headed when trading. Hell if your trading strategy is flipping a coin with proper trade management you'd probably make some money (don't quote me on that).
Trade money you're willing to lose Don't trade your rent money.
That's all I have for now. If anyone sees this and wants to add more feel free. Hope this helps someone.
La realidad del trading. Te cuento por que la mayoría de personas pierden.
La verdad que en todos lados leo gente diciendo que el trading no funciona y que prefieren meterse en las inversiones a mediano y largo plazo, e ir a lo seguro, lo cual no esta mal, pero en parte estan equivocados. El trading SI funciona, y te voy a explicar por que. Básicamente la mayoria de la gente fracasa porque compra cursos de mierda, de traders de mierda que no saben un carajo. Y cuál es el problema de esto? Que basicamente estas aprendiendo con la información erronea, con los puntos de vista de gente inútil, y cuando vos vas al mercado perdés la mayoria de las veces. Incluso he visto gente con AÑOS de estudio que no saben leer bien la estructura del mercado, y ni hablar de su pesimo rendimiento. Se enfocan en lineas de tendencia, soportes y resistencias, patrones de velas y toda esa basura que te enseñan en youtube, lo cual no esta mal, pero si no tenes un entendimiento de estructura, ciclos, manipulacion no vas a llegar a ningun lado. Y que pasa con esto? Que el tipo que estudio en esos cursos basuras, pierde, se frustra y lo ves en todos lados criticando al trading. Además de tener una estrategia nefasta basada en cientos de indicadores y figuras chartistas, también tiene una pesima gestión de riesgo, lo cual significa fracaso. La mayoría de los traders que vos ves en youtube la plata que generan son de cursos y no de los mercados, no se dejen engañar. Son muy buenos mostrándote resultados pasados en tradingview y subiendo fotos en miami pero operando son un desastre. O también te muestran alguna ganancia que tuvieron y la suben a youtube, a instagram y a donde sea, pero no te muestran el track record completo, asi cualquiera pa. Todo esto que mencioné lo hacen para vender mas y que la gente se haga falsas ilusiones. Cual es mi recomendación? Empezá buscando un curso bueno, con la información correcta. Tenes el de SMB capital, el de Tradingdefuturos y el de Inner circle trader, este ultimo se esta popularizando demasiado y es bastante efectivo. Estos cursos se enfocan en trading institucional, en liquidez, manipulación y todo lo que vos necesitas saber para tener un buen entendimiento del mercado a nivel estructural, etc. Ya diciendote todo esto te ahorre años de tiempo perdido, espero que aproveches. Cual es el siguiente aspecto importante? La gestion de riesgo, si vos tenes esto y una buena estrategia ya tenes rentabilidad. Por que? Bueno, yo siempre recomiendo operar con un ratio riesgo beneficio de 1:3. Que quiere decir esto? Que arriesgo 1 para ganar 3, y de esta forma me puedo permitir tener pérdidas sin que me afecte. Suponiendo que vos arriesgas un 2% por operación, para ganar 6% (1:3), vos necesitarías un 30% de efectividad para salir ganador. Si vos perdes 7 operaciones, y ganas 3, con un 2% de riesgo por trade estarias ganando un total de 4%. Si vos perdes 5 operaciones y ganas 5, con un 2% estarías ganando un 20%. Y asi sucesivamente. Si subís el riesgo a 5% ni te cuento. Y si, seguro algunos monos despues de leer esto me van a querer citar a Warren Buffet diciendo que el gana un 30% al año. Y cual es la diferencia? Warren buffet es multimillonario, vos sos alguien con una cuenta de 500usd. 5% de 80mil millones son 4mil millones. 5% de 500 es de 25usd. Vos si te podes dar el lujo de perder dinero, el no. Ademas, , el es inversor, no trader. Vos al tener cuentas chicas de 100 a 10k te podes dar el lujo de operar con mas riesgo, y asi obtener mas rentabilidad mensual. La rentabilidad que vos tengas va a depender del riesgo que estes dispuesto a asumir. No te sorprendas si ves a gente generando un 200% anual o mensual, o incluso semanal. Por que? Porque probablemente esten usando un riesgo altísimo y si tienen una mala semana cagan fuego. Es posible, por mas que los cabezas de termo te digan que no, si es posible sacar 10%, 20% y 30% mensual, lo que necesitas es una buena gestión de riesgo y una estrategia rentable. Ahora, como dije, todo depende del riesgo que estes dispuesto a asumir, si vos usas un riesgo bajisimo de 0.5% por operación y generas un 5% de 2k, son 100usd, con eso no haces nada., pero en cuentas grandes, de 100k, 5% son 5mil usd, suficiente para vivir tranquilo y cagarte de risa. Ahora, suponiendo que vos ya te leíste todos los libros y cursos e hiciste mucho backtesting, y en demo tenes buena efectividad, pero no tenes los huevos para operar en real, que haces? Fácil, haces una prueba de fondeo en alguna firma, de esa forma si perdes no te quemas tanto, pero si ganas tenes una cuenta de 25k en tu poder. Cual es el requisito de estas pruebas? 4% en seis meses, es decir, tenes seis meses para conseguir ese objetivo. Seis meses es demasiado tiempo, asi que si vos realmente sos rentable lo vas a conseguir. Que mercados recomiendo? Forex y futuros, y si, tambien hay monos que odian forex pero es porque no lo saben operar. En forex tenes mas liquidez, mejor apalancamiento, mercado 24/5, y los análisis fundamentales son mucho mas sencillos. Suponiendo que vos aprendiste con los que te mencioné arriba no vas a tener problemas entendiendo forex. El trading no es tan complicado, la gente se complica y se frustra. Recuerden siempre tener un buen ratio riesgo beneficio y ya no les van a molestar tanto las pérdidas. Yo abro tres o cuatro operaciones al mes con un 2% de riesgo, en scalping, en un dia cualquiera. Si yo gano dos y pierdo dos ya tengo un 8%, que hago? No opero hasta el mes que viene y me enfoco en otras cosas, y listo, no busco mas que eso. No sobreopero, no busco 200% al mes porque no necesito, y tampoco cierro las operaciones antes de tocar el take profit, porque asi es mi gestión de riesgo. A las cuentas de 100usd y 500usd aprovechenlas, usen un riesgo un poco mas alto y con el tiempo van a tener un buen monto. Si ustedes tienen un trabajo estable no les va a joder tanto perder eso. A medida que la cuenta sube el riesgo baja. Siempre antes de mandarse en real asegurense de haber hecho mucho backtesting, mucho. Si pueden traten siempre operar para firmas de trading, es mucho mejor en mi opinión ya que no arriesgas tu dinero y cada cierto tiempo te duplican el capital para operar (en caso de que cumplas con los objetivos). Firmas que recomiendo :The5ers y Ftmo.
I have an 89% win rate over 18 trades, with a 27% profit. How many trades should I do before going live?
So I've been doing some scalping on pairs with high spreads in cryptocurrencies previously with great success, but I finally figured I'd give forex a real shot (was into it a few years ago, but didn't go live). Last time I scalped in crypto, I had 14 out of 14 successful trades, but only about a 10% profit. I haven't heard about anyone scalping the way I do in crypto, but I find my method extremely reliable when I just find the right pair to trade. This is just to say I have some experience with trading, but I'm by no means an expert. Now, I've been scalping the past few days with a paper trading account on TradingView. I've mostly been trading the US Currency Index, S&P 500 and some crypto pairs thus far. I'm scalping on the 1m time frame using bollinger bands and looking at trends, price action and stoch RSI for confirmation on my entries. I started out with 100k a few days ago and first doubled my account to around 200k and then did a 1,3 mill trade, but I was running like 500-1000 USD per pip, so if the market turned against me, I'd be liquidated real quick. While the trades were good, I figured I was disconnected from the risk I was taking because it isn't real money, and I wanted to try doing more conservative and realistic trades, so I reset the account yesterday. Edit (more trades done): Since the account was reset, I've done 45 trades where I've lost on two of them. If my math serves me right, that's about an 95.5% win rate. I'm up around 77.5% currently. I did lose 1500 on one trade, but that's because I by mistake placed a sell order when I was supposed to add another buy order double down on my long position, so I'm not counting that one in (but I'm not counting the 1500 I lost as profit either). I have a very strict strategy I'm sticking to when doing these scalps. I realize 45 trades is not a huge sample size, but that is kinda why I'm asking: How many trades should I do on the paper trading account before I should run it live with confidence? For anyone who might be interested, here's my account history: https://imgur.com/a/zuRSWwd Edit: here's 6 trades more: https://imgur.com/a/CmbyU6n Edit2: some more trades: https://imgur.com/a/q9xqVyq Edit3: I think we're up to 45 trades now: https://imgur.com/a/CsWZEN7
Double Supertrend Strategy Backtest (8500+ Trades on 28 Pairs)
Hi everyone, so a few months ago I discovered this post by u/AHoomanBeanz which is a strategy I've never heard of before. Basically, you have 2 Supertrends, a short-term one, and a long-term one and when both Supertrends go in the same direction you take a trade. I took the liberty of modifying the strategy by setting fixed TPs instead of trailing SL with the short-term Supertrend. Check out his post for more info about entries, SL, etc. In order to determine what way is the most efficient, I backtested this exact strategy on all 28 Majors and Minors and took five different approaches to TPs and moving of SL: - 1:1 RRR, No Breakeven SL - 1:1.5 RRR, No BE SL - 1:2 RRR, No BE SL - 1:1.5 RRR, Move SL to BE at 1:1 RRR - 1:2 RRR, Move SL to BE at 1:1RRR There would be many other ways to handle the TPs and SLs but it already took me months to backtest this but if anyone wants to extend this backtest, feel free. The Results Using all 5 ways there were 8 out of 28 pairs that weren't profitable at all. (EURGBP, EURCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, AUDCHF, NZDJPY, CADCHF, CHFJPY) The remaining 20 pairs were profitable with at least one of the 5 ways. So I combined all 20 pairs and their most profitable TP/SL management methods and it turns out that the strategy isn't even that bad considering that you really just have to understand how Supertrends work. Now here are some quick stats: Backtest Period: Jan 2017 - Aug 2020 - Risk Per Trade: 1% - Winrate: 44.66% - Profit Factor: 1.65 - Average Monthly Return: 5.81% - Max Drawdown: 18.4% Notice that the drawdown is pretty high so if you're trading with a prop firm like FTMO you could just risk half as much (0.5% per trade) and your max DD would be 9.2%. Keep in mind that the return would also get cut in half. If you want to get a more detailed view, here's the backtesting spreadsheet (Before anyone asks: I spent 2-4h per day for around 6 weeks backtesting and tracking this stuff.)
Hi guys, I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert. I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning. When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions. The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts Part I
Why it matters
Using stops sensibly
Picking a clear level
Why it matters
The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.” You have to keep it before you grow it. Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around. The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices. Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.
Capital and position sizing
The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose. Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market. A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples. So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000. We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be? We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator". https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14 So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital. You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk. Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later. The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work. As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you. Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints. For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly: https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you. Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown. It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance. Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k. Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money. Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.
If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number? The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round. This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet. Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin. Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips. Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds. Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically. If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss. So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%. Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit! With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not. Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account. Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see. This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders. Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.
How to use stop losses sensibly
Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them. A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter. The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’. This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK. Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty. You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter. Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”. It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong. Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.
Picking a clear level
Where you leave your stop loss is key. Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible. If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200. The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up. Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD. https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802 If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend. So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level. There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section. There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high. https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81 Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument. Here are some guidelines that can help:
Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out. For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.
Coming up in part II
EDIT: part II here Letting stops breathe When to change a stop Entering and exiting winning positions Risk:reward ratios Risk-adjusted returns
Coming up in part III
Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
i'm new in this forex stuff (not even starting yet) & first time visiting Forex. But i've read that forex basically gambling (guessing either it goes up or down, and you got previous data as reference). I'm also read about foolproof gambling tricks that works in real life roulette. Basically it goes like this :
bet $1 on red - if you win, repeat step 1.
if you lose, bet $3. if you win, repeat step 1.
if you lose again, bet $6. if you win, repeat step 1.
if you lose again, bet $14. if you win repeat step 1.
if you lose again, bet $31. if you win, repeat step 1
so, can this be apply on forex trading? (there's lot ads about forex trading apps, thinking to try it) can't profit big, but seem cant lose either. might be a good strategy. any thought? edit 1 : what i mean in this forex is binary options, which some forex trading apps operates. edit 2 : it takes 5 unlucky trading before $55 account blown off. is that really common to get 5 unlucky trading in a row? edit 3 : here's the math (cnp from reply) some forex apps (like expert option or olymp trade) operate on binary option (this is unregulated securities?) where usually they give 80% return on trade. the math goes like this :
$1 trade and win = $0.80 profit
lose then $3 trade and win = $2.4 - $1 (lose) = $1.4 profit
lose then $6 trade and win = $4.8 - $4 (lose) = $0.8 profit
lose then $14 trade and win = $11.2 - $10 (lose) = $1.2 profit
lose then $31 trade and win = $24.8 - $24 (lose) = $0.8 profit
profit means got back your initial too
edit 4 : some reply said **binary options type forex trading apps** are scam & fraud. bummer. maybe trading via smartphone isnt easy as i thought. edit 5 : still, add some ability to reading indicator & chart could help avoiding 5 unlucky trading in a row. damn, if i'm a programmer, i'll make a trading bots based on this idea xD
[Strategies] Here is My Trading Approach, Thought Process and Execution
Hello everyone. I've noticed a lot of us here are quite secretive about how we trade, especially when we comment on a fellow trader's post. We're quick to tell them what they're doing isn't the "right way" and they should go to babypips or YouTube. There's plenty of strategies we say but never really tell them what is working for us. There's a few others that are open to share their experience and thought processes when considering a valid trade. I have been quite open myself. But I'm always met with the same "well I see what you did is quite solid but what lead you to deem this trade valid for you? " The answer is quite simple, I have a few things that I consider which are easy rules to follow. I realized that the simpler you make it, the easier it is for you to trade and move on with your day. I highlight a few "valid" zones and go about my day. I've got an app that alerts me when price enters the zone on my watchlist. This is because I don't just rely on forex trading money, I doubt it would be wise to unless you're trading a 80% win rate strategy. Sometimes opportunities are there and we exploit them accordingly but sometimes we are either distracted by life issues and decide to not go into the markets stressed out or opportunities just aren't there or they are but your golden rules aren't quite met. My rules are pretty simple, one of the prime golden rules is, "the risk is supposed to be very minimal to the reward I want to yield from that specific trade". i.e I can risk -50 pips for a +150 and more pips gain. My usual target starts at 1:2 but my most satisfying trade would be a 1:3 and above. This way I can lose 6/10 trades and still be profitable. I make sure to keep my charts clean and simple so to understand what price does without the interference of indicators all over my charts. Not to say if you use indicators for confluence is a complete no-no. Each trader has their own style and I would be a narcissistic asshole if I assumed my way is superior than anybody else's. NB: I'm doing this for anybody who has a vague or no idea of supply and demand. Everything here has made me profitable or at least break even but doesn't guarantee the same for you. This is just a scratch on the surface so do all you can for due diligence when it comes to understanding this topic with more depth and clear comprehension. Supply and Demand valid zones properties; what to me makes me think "oh this zone has the potential to make me money, let me put it on my watchlist"? Mind when I say watchlist, not trade it. These are different in this sense. 👉With any zone, you're supposed to watch how price enters the zone, if there's a strong push in the opposite direction or whatever price action you're observing...only then does the zone becomes valid. YOU TRADE THE REACTION, NOT THE EXPECTATION Some setups just fail and that's okay because you didn't gamble. ✍ !!!IMPORTANT SUBJECT TO LEARN BEFORE YOU START SUPPLY AND DEMAND!!! FTR. Failure to Return.(Please read on these if you haven't. They are extremely important in SnD). Mostly occur after an impulse move from a turning point. See attached examples: RBR(rally base rally)/DBD(drop base drop). They comprise of an initial move to a certain direction, a single candle in the opposite direction and followed by 2 or more strong candles in the initial direction. The opposite candle is your FTR(This is your zone) The first time price comes back(FTB) to a zone with an FTR has high possibilities to be a strong zone. How to identify high quality zones according to my approach:
Engulfing zones; This is a personal favorite. For less errors I identify the best opportunities using the daily and 4H chart.
On the example given, I chose the GBPNZD trade idea I shared here a month ago I believe. A double bottom is easily identified, with the final push well defined Bullish Engulfing candle. To further solidify it are the strong wicks to show strong rejection and failure to close lower than the left shoulder. How we draw our zone is highlight the whole candle just before the Engulfing Candle. That's your zone. After drawing it, you also pay attention to the price that is right where the engulfing starts. You then set a price alert on your preferred app because usually price won't get there immediately. This is the second most important part of trading, PATIENCE. If you can be disciplined enough to not leave a limit order, or place a market order just because you trust your analysis...you've won half the battle because we're not market predictors, we're students. And we trade the reaction. On the given example, price had already reached the zone of interest. Price action observed was, there was a rejection that drove it out of the zone, this is the reaction we want. Soon as price returns(retests)...this is your time to fill or kill moment, going to a 4H or 1H to make minimum risk trades. (See GBPNZD Example 1&2)
Liquidity Run; This approach looks very similar to the Engulfing zones. The difference is, price makes a few rejections on a higher timeframe level(Resistance or support). This gives the novice trader an idea that we've established a strong support or resistance, leading to them either selling or buying given the opportunity. Price then breaks that level trapping the support and resistance trader. At this point, breakout traders have stop orders below or above these levels to anticipate a breakout at major levels with stops just below the levels. Now that the market has enough traders trapped, it goes for the stop losses above or below support and resistance levels after taking them out, price comes back into the level to take out breakout traders' stop losses. This is where it has gathered enough liquidity to move it's desired direction.
The given example on the NZDJPY shows a strong level established twice. With the Bearish Engulfing movement, price leaves a supply zone...that's where we come in. We go to smaller timeframes for a well defined entry with our stops above the recent High targeting the next demand zone. The second screenshot illustrates how high the reward of this approach is as well. Due diligence is required for this kind of approach because it's not uncommon but usually easily misinterpreted, which is why it's important it's on higher timeframes. You can back test and establish your own rules on this but the RSI in this case was used for confluence. It showed a strong divergence which made it an even easier trade to take. ...and last but definitely not least,
Double Bottom/Top. (I've used double bottoms on examples because these are the only trades I shared here so we'll talk about double bottoms. Same but opposite rules apply on double tops).
The first most important rule here is when you look to your left, price should have made a Low, High and a Lower Low. This way, the last leg(shoulder) should be lower than the first. Some call this "Hidden Zones". When drawing the zones, the top border of the zone is supposed to be on the tip of the Low and covering the Lower Low. **The top border is usually the entry point. On the first given example I shared this week, NZDCAD. After identifying the structure, you start to look for zones that could further verify the structure for confluence. Since this was identified on the 4H, when you zoom out to the daily chart...there's a very well defined demand zone (RBR). By now you should know how strong these kind of zones are especially if found on higher timeframes. That will now be your kill zone. You'll draw another zone within the bigger zone, if price doesn't close below it...you've got a trade. You'll put your stop losses outside the initial zone to avoid wicks(liquidity runs/stop hunts) On the second image you'll see how price closed within the zone and rallied upwards towards your targets. The second example is CHFJPY; although looking lower, there isn't a rally base rally that further solidifies our bias...price still respected the zone. Sometimes we just aren't going to get perfect setups but it is up to us to make calculated risks. In this case, risk is very minimal considering the potential profit. The third example (EURNZD) was featured because sometimes you just can't always get perfect price action within your desired zone. Which is why it's important to wait for price to close before actually taking a trade. Even if you entered prematurely and were taken out of the trade, the rules are still respected hence a re entry would still yield you more than what you would have lost although revenge trading is wrong. I hope you guys learnt something new and understand the thought process that leads to deciding which setups to trade from prepared supply and demand trade ideas. It's important to do your own research and back testing that matches your own trading style. I'm more of a swing trader hence I find my zones using the Daily and 4H chart. Keeping it simple and trading the reaction to your watched zone is the most important part about trading any strategy. Important Note: The trade ideas on this post are trades shared on this sub ever since my being active only because I don't want to share ideas that I may have carefully picked to make my trading approach a blind pick from the millions on the internet. All these were shared here. Here's a link to the trade ideas analyzed for this post specifically Questions are welcome on the comments section. Thank you for reading till here.
ATO Australian tax treatment for options trades 🇦🇺
I am posting this as I hope it will help other Australian options traders trading in US options with their tax treatment for ATO (Australian Tax Office) purposes. The ATO provides very little guidance on tax treatment for options trading and I had to do a lot of digging to get to this point. I welcome any feedback on this post.
The Deloitte Report from 2011
My initial research led me to this comprehensive Deloitte report from 2011 which is hosted on the ASX website. I've been through this document about 20 times and although it's a great report to understand how different scenarios apply, it's still really hard to find out what's changed since 2011. I am mainly relating myself to the scenario of being an individual and non-sole trader (no business set up) for my trading. I think this will apply to many others here too. According to that document, there isn't much guidance on what happens when you're an options premium seller and close positions before they expire. Note that the ATO sometimes uses the term "ETO" (Exchange Traded Option) to discuss what we're talking about here with options trading. Also note: The ATO discusses the separate Capital Gains Tax ("CGT") events that occur in each scenario in some of their documents. A CGT event will then determine what tax treatment gets applied if you don't know much about capital gains in Australia.
ATO Request for Advice
Since the Deloitte report didn't answer my questions, I eventually ended up contacting the ATO with a request for advice and tried to explain my scenario: I'm an Australian resident for tax purposes,I'm trading with tastyworks in $USD, I'm primarily a premium seller and I don't have it set up with any business/company/trust etc. In effect, I have a rough idea that I'm looking at capital gains tax but I wanted to fully understand how it worked. Initially the ATO respondent didn't understand what I was talking about when I said that I was selling a position first and buying it to close. According to the laws, there is no example of this given anywhere because it is always assumed in ATO examples that you buy a position and sell it. Why? I have no idea. I sent a follow up request with even more detail to the ATO. I think (hope) they understood what I meant now after explaining what an options premium seller is!
First, I have to consider translating my $USD to Australian dollars. How do we treat that? FX Translation If the premium from selling the options contract is received in $USD, do I convert it to $AUD on that day it is received? ATO response:
Subsection 960-50(6), Item 5 of the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 (ITAA 1997) states the amount should be translated at the time of the transaction or event for the purposes of the Capital Gains Tax provisions. For the purpose of granting an option to an entity, the time of the event is when you grant the option (subsection 104-20(2) ITAA 1997).
This is a very detailed response which even refers to the level of which section in the law it is coming from. I now know that I need to translate my trades from $USD to $AUD according to the RBA's translation rates for every single trade. But what about gains or losses on translation? There is one major rule that overrides FX gains and losses after digging deeper. The ATO has a "$250k balance election". This will probably apply to a lot of people trading in balances below $250k a lot of the FX rules don't apply. It states:
However, the $250,000 balance election broadly enables you to disregard certain foreign currency gains and losses on certain foreign currency denominated bank accounts and credit card accounts (called qualifying forex accounts) with balances below a specified limit.
Therefore, I'm all good disregarding FX gains and losses! I just need to ensure I translate my trades on the day they occurred. It's a bit of extra admin to do unfortunately, but it is what it is.
This is the scenario where we SELL a position first, collect premium, and close the position by making an opposite BUY order. Selling a naked PUT, for example. What happens when you open the position? ATO Response:
The option is grantedCGT event D2 happens when a taxpayer grants an option. The time of the event is when the option is granted. The capital gain or loss arising is the difference between the capital proceeds and the expenditure incurred to grant the option.
This seems straight forward. We collect premium and record a capital gain. What happens when you close the position? ATO Response:
Closing out an optionThe establishment of an ETO contract is referred to as opening a position (ASX Explanatory Booklet 'Understanding Options Trading'). A person who writes (sells) a call or put option may close out their position by taking (buying) an identical call or put option in the same series. This is referred to as the close-out of an option or the closing-out of an opening position. CGT event C2 happens when a taxpayer's ownership of an intangible CGT asset ends. Paragraph 104-25(1)(a) of the ITAA 1997 provides that ownership of an intangible CGT asset ends by cancellation, surrender, or release or similar means. CGT event C2 therefore happens to a taxpayer when their position under an ETO is closed out where the close-out results in the cancellation, release or discharge of the ETO. Under subsection 104-25(3) of the ITAA 1997 you make a capital gain from CGT event C2 if the capital proceeds from the ending are more than the assets cost base. You make a capital loss if those capital proceeds are less than the assets reduced cost base. Both CGT events (being D2 upon granting the option and C2 upon adopting the close out position) must be accounted for if applicable to a situation.
My take on this is that the BUY position that cancels out your SELL position will most often simply realise a capital loss (the entire portion of your BUY position). In effect, it 'cancels out' your original premium sold, but it's not recorded that way, it's recorded as two separate CGT events - your capital gain from CGT event D2 (SELL position), then, your capital loss from CGT event C2 (BUY position) is also recorded.In effect, they net each other out, but you don't record them as a 'netted out' number-you record them separately. From what I understand, if you were trading as a sole tradecompany then you would record them as a netted out capital gain or loss, because the trades would be classified as trading stock but not in our case here as an individual person trading options. The example I've written below should hopefully make that clearer. EXAMPLE: Trade on 1 July 2020: Open position
SELL -1 SPY 85 PUT, exp 30 August 2020
Collect Premium USD$1 per unit, and brokerage USD$5
= USD$100 premium collected, minus USD$5
= Net amount of USD$95 collected
FX Translation rate on the date of the trade: AUD $1.00 = $USD 0.70
Net Premium Collected in $AUD
= USD$95 x (1/.7)
CGT Event D2 triggered and a capital gain of $135.71 is recorded
Trade on 15 July 2020: Close position
BUY 1 SPY 85 PUT, exp 30 August 2020
Pay Premium $0.50 per unit, and brokerage $5
= $50 premium paid, plus $5
= Net amount of USD$55 paid
FX Translation rate on the date of the trade: AUD $1.00 = $USD 0.60
Net Premium Collected in $AUD
= USD$55 x (1/.6)
CGT Event C2 triggered and a capital loss of $91.66 is recorded
We can see from this simple example that even though you made a gain on those trades, you still have to record the transactions separately, as first a gain, then as a loss. Note that it is not just a matter of netting off the value of the net profit collected and converting the profit to $AUD because the exchange rate will be different on the date of the opening trade and on the date of the closing trade we have to record them separately. What if you don't close the position and the options are exercised? ATO Response:
The option is granted and then the option is exercisedUnder subsection 104-40(5) of the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 (ITAA 1997) the capital gain or loss from the CGT event D2 is disregarded if the option is exercised. Subsection 134-1(1), item 1, of the ITAA 1997 refers to the consequences for the grantor of the exercise of the option. Where the option binds the grantor to dispose of a CGT asset section 116-65 of the ITAA 1997 applies to the transaction. Subsection 116-65(2) of the ITAA 1997 provides that the capital proceeds from the grant or disposal of the shares (CGT asset) include any payment received for granting the option. The disposal of the shares is a CGT event A1 which occurs under subsection 104-10(3) of the ITAA 1997 when the contract for disposal is entered into. You would still make a capital gain at the happening of the CGT event D2 in the year the event occurs (the time the option is granted). That capital gain is disregarded when the option is exercised. Where the option is exercised in the subsequent tax year, the CGT event D2 gain is disregarded at that point. An amendment may be necessary to remove the gain previously included in taxable income for the year in which the CGT event D2 occurred.
This scenario is pretty unlikely - for me personally I never hold positions to expiration, but it is nice to know what happens with the tax treatment if it ultimately does come to that.
What about the scenario when you want to BUY some options first, then SELL that position and close it later? Buying a CALL, for example. This case is what the ATO originally thought my request was about before I clarified with them. They stated:
When you buy an ETO, you acquire an asset (the ETO) for the amount paid for it (that is, the premium) plus any additional costs such as brokerage fees and the Australian Clearing House (ACH) fee. These costs together form the cost base of the ETO (section 109-5 of the ITAA 1997). On the close out of the position, you make a capital gain or loss equal to the difference between the cost base of the ETO and the amount received on its expiry or termination (subsection 104-25(3) of the ITAA 1997). The capital gain or loss is calculated on each parcel of options.
So it seems it is far easier to record debit trades for tax purposes. It is easier for the tax office to see that you open a position by buying it, and close it by selling it. And in that case you net off the total after selling it. This is very similar to a trading shares and the CGT treatment is in effect very similar (the main difference is that it is not coming under CGT event A1 because there is no asset to dispose of, like in a shares or property trade).
Other ATO Info (FYI)
The ATO also referred me to the following documents. They relate to some 'decisions' that they made from super funds but the same principles apply to individuals they said.
The ATO’s Interpretative Decision in relation to the tax treatment of premiums payable and receivable for exchange traded options can be found on the links below. Please note that the interpretative decisions below are in relation to self-managed superannuation funds but the same principles would apply in your situation [as an individual taxpayer, not as a super fund].
Key quote from this decision: CGT Event D2will apply on the writing of an ETO by the Fund. The Fund as grantor of the option will make a capital gain (or loss) of the difference between the capital proceeds (that is, the premium receivable) and the cost of granting the option (for example, brokerage fees) at the time the option is granted
My take on this is that you will realise a capital gain on issuing of the selling position. I don't see how you could realise a capital loss in that scenario? Or maybe if you sell a position and the brokerage is so high that it outweighs the premium received (a dumb trade) then that would be a capital loss (a rare scenario).
Key quote from decision: When the Fund opens a position by buying an ETO, no immediate taxation consequences arise.CGT Event C2will happen to the Fund when its position under an ETO is closed out where the close-out results in the cancellation, release or discharge of the ETO
Don't forget to declare your trades on your tax return and keep a nice spreadsheet
Keep track of the exchange rates for each day you make a trade. You could do as you go and check the RBA exchange rates website for the daily number, or just do it all at once at the end of the financial year
Finally - I recommend ensuring that you save a portion of your income to pay the capital gains tax at the end of the year so you don't have to withdraw it from your portfolio and pay exchange rate fees to convert it back to Australian dollars. It will depend on your marginal tax rate what that percentage will work out to be in the end.
You do need a proper strategy for judging your take profit. This piece of the puzzle basically means you need to try and predict the future. Fortunately, the Forex market is a creature of habit and history tend to repeat itself. Furthermore, the historical price movement allows you to assume the most probable future based on your trade being correct. This is all you can do as a trader, assume ... Stop Loss und Take Profit richtig einsetzen als Forex Trader. Mit Stop Loss- und Take Profit-Niveaus können Händler beim Forex Trading unnötige Risiken vermeiden und sich die Gewinne von erfolgreichen Trades sichern. Dagegen werden Stop Loss- und Take Profit-Limits gesetzt, um eine bestimmte Position zu öffnen bzw. zu schließen. Beim Verfolgen einer bestimmten Strategie werden die Stop ... In Forex trading, you should consider the risk of the trade, as well as the potential reward, and if it's realistically practical to obtain it according to the surrounding market structure. To trade more profitably, it is a prudent decision to use stop-loss and take-profit in Forex. Final Thoughts on Trading Take Profit Levels. The bottom line is that these two areas are heavy support and resistance levels. That is why they work so well as take profit levels. But don't take my word for it, test it for yourself. This guide will show you how to backtest it. There is so much random information on taking profits out there. Find out for sure! Remember that you will need to ... Actions, Forex, CFD, Gold, Brent... Comment prendre position et trader dans les meilleurs conditions ? Pour réussir durablement sur le marché des devises, il est indispensable de maîtriser un ensemble de paramètres. (money management, volatilité, calendrier économique, scalping, swing trading, take-profit, stop-loss etc) Stop-Loss und Take Profit im Forex Trading richtig setzen. Natürlich sollte man den Stop-Loss nicht auf gut Glück oder dem Bauchgefühl platzieren. Hier gibt es 2 Wege wie man bestimmen kann, auf welches Kursniveau man den Stop-Loss am besten legt. Stop-Loss Abstände berechnen. Bei dieser Trading Strategie geht es hauptsächlich um Moneymanagement beim Trading. Hier berechnet man den ... Take Profit Order (Abkürzung: TP) sind einer Stopp Loss Order sehr ähnlich, beziehen sich jedoch nicht auf Verluste, sondern auf Gewinne. Mit ihnen kann sich ein Marktteilnehmer dagegen absichern, einmal erzielte Gewinne im weiteren Handelsverlauf wieder einzubüßen. Den richtigen Take-Profit finden. Wo sollte man den Take-Profit setzen? Nun, dies ist natürlich schwierig, natürlich will man nicht zu früh aussteigen, aber natürlich auch nicht zu spät. Ein erster Anhaltspunkt ist der Stop-Loss. Hat man einen Stop-Loss von 10 Pips gewählt, dann sollte der Take-Profit 10 Pips und mehr betragen. Denn sonst ... Beim Take Profit, der mitunter auch Zielpreis genannt wird, verhält es sich umgekehrt. Hierbei erteilt man dem Broker eine Take Profit Order, die ihn dazu veranlasst, eine offene Position oder einen Trade bei einem bestimmten Höchstpreis zu schließen. Die Stop Loss Order im Trading Most traders will likely agree with the proposition that the most difficult thing to get right in forex trading is to put stop losses and take profit rates. A lot of Forex trading education and material exchanged with learning traders is based on finding the right positions for joining the trades. Let’s be clear that entry is very important ...
How to Place a STOP LOSS and TAKE PROFIT when Trading Forex!
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